Insights
Jan 9, 2025

The Maths of Net Zero - Why 2025 is an important year

Hitting Net Zero by 2050 means slashing global emissions by at least 80%—an enormous task. But breaking it down makes it manageable: 80% over 25 years equals just 3.2% per year. For businesses, 2025 is the year to start turning ambition into action.

Gus Bartholomew
Jan 9, 2025

What is Net Zero?

Net Zero refers to achieving a balance between the greenhouse gases emitted into the atmosphere and those removed from it. This means drastically reducing emissions to the lowest possible level and then offsetting any remaining emissions. The ultimate goal is to ensure that the amount of CO₂ we add to the atmosphere is no greater than the amount we take away.

What is the current status?

Global CO₂ emissions currently stand at around 40 gigatonnes per year—and still rising.

To reach net zero by 2050, the goal is to cut emissions by 80-90%, bringing them down to 5-10 gigatonnes per year. Achieving this alone would be monumental, requiring global collaboration, unprecedented innovation, and action across every sector.

Even if we hit that target, there will still be 5-10 gigatonnes of hard-to-abate emissions that must be offset. That’s where carbon removal comes in—and the challenge becomes even clearer.

Required Carbon Dioxide Removal to Meet Net-Zero

A Snapshot of Carbon Removal Today

Currently, around 2 gigatonnes of CO₂ are removed annually. Nearly all of this comes from natural processes like forests and soils. This includes all of the human-driven natural carbon capture projects that are currently underway. While tree planting and reforestation projects play a role, their contribution is relatively small—just 0.1 to 0.2 gigatonnes per year, which is a tiny fraction of what’s needed to make a meaningful dent in global emissions.

If we maximized reforestation across all feasible land—roughly 11% of Earth’s surface—these forests could eventually absorb 3-5 gigatonnes annually at their peak. However, reaching that level would take up to 50 years—too long a timeframe to be effective, given the severity of the challenge. Plus, this approach comes with its own set of challenges, such as land-use conflicts and the time required for new forests to mature.

In short, while natural solutions like reforestation are important, they alone cannot close the emissions gap. To meet the scale of the challenge, we’ll need to rely on engineered carbon removal technologies, which offer the potential to capture emissions directly and at scale.

These technologies include:

  • Direct Air Capture (DAC): Extracting CO₂ directly from the atmosphere using advanced machinery.
  • Enhanced Weathering: A process that uses minerals to chemically bind CO₂ and lock it away permanently.
  • Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS): Capturing and storing emissions generated from bioenergy production.

Today, however, these engineered solutions remove less than 0.01 gigatonnes annually. That’s an almost negligible amount compared to what’s required to address global emissions effectively.

Experts suggest that by 2030, these technologies must scale up significantly to remove 1-3 gigatonnes per year to keep us on track for net zero. To achieve this, their deployment needs to increase by more than 1,000 times over the next 25 years—a task that demands unprecedented levels of investment, technological innovation, and coordination across industries and governments.

It’s a daunting task, requiring significant investment, innovation, and commitment from governments and industries alike.

Carbon Removal Technologies (Source - Physics world)

What Businesses Need to Do in 2025

As a business, it's unlikely that you can directly influence the scalability of carbon removal technologies—leave that to the experts. But what you can do is focus on the first and most important step:

Reduce your emissions.

It’s now 2025. That means 25 years until we must hit net zero. For businesses, this translates to reducing emissions by a minimum of 80% over that time period. That sounds overwhelming, and it is a big task. But when broken down, it becomes more manageable:

80% over 25 years is just 3.2% per year.

So, if you’re looking for an actionable and achievable target for this year, set yourself this goal:

Reduce your emissions by 3.2% in 2025. That’s a win.

Reduction comes first; removal comes second. Every tonne of CO₂ you don’t emit today is one less tonne we need to remove tomorrow. The more we reduce now, the less pressure we place on future carbon removal technologies—and the higher our chances of success.

Here’s what to do next:

  1. Measure your emissions. You can’t reduce what you don’t track. Start by identifying your biggest sources of CO₂ emissions.“Get your supply chain in order—tidy up inefficiencies, improve old processes, and clear space for growth.”
  2. Prioritize high-impact reductions. Focus on the areas that drive the majority of your emissions. For many businesses, this includes energy use, transportation, and supply chain operations.
  3. Engage your team and stakeholders. Sustainability isn’t a solo mission. Collaborate with your team and suppliers to implement meaningful changes.
  4. Seek expert help if needed. Tackling emissions can feel overwhelming. The right specialist can help you navigate regulations, set achievable goals, and stay on track.

The Task Ahead

We are now just five years away from the 2030 milestone for carbon removal. This milestone represents a critical juncture in the global fight against climate change. By 2030, the world must prove that scaling carbon removal technologies to meaningful levels is not only theoretically possible but achievable in practice.

Reduction efforts lay the foundation for carbon removal technologies to work effectively. Without significant emissions cuts, the sheer volume of CO₂ that needs to be removed becomes insurmountable. Every tonne of CO₂ prevented today translates to less reliance on nascent technologies tomorrow. It also buys critical time for innovators to refine and scale solutions, ensuring they are cost-effective and accessible to all sectors.

This is not just a challenge for governments and industries; businesses play a pivotal role too. By prioritizing emissions reductions, businesses can demonstrate leadership, align with emerging regulations, and support the global push for a sustainable future.

Success in meeting the 2030 milestone depends on a collective effort where reductions and removals go hand in hand—and where every entity, big or small, contributes to the solution.

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